It is rumored that the United States will completely ban the sale of AI chips on China: block everything possible!

2025-03-01 18:26:24|Myriagame |source：minecraft skins

According to Fast Technology on March 1, Japan's Mizuho Securities recently released its latest report saying that according to industry news and a panel of Ruisui Securities in Washington, the Trump administration in the United States may introduce new measures to regulate AI chip exports to China.

Ruisui Securities said its U.S. government affairs chief recently noticed that the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC) nominations include Assistant Secretary Landon Heid and Deputy Secretary of the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) Jeffrey Kessler.Ruisui Securities believes that their appointments may lead to:

1. All AI chips are completely prohibited from entering China, including Nvidia H20/B20 and some traditional chips (28nm+).

2. Targeted suspension of export licenses.

Ruisui Securities believes that this will affect Nvidia's revenue of approximately US$4-6 billion in fiscal 2026, and its impact on earnings per share is approximately US$0.13-0.18.

According to data, Nvidia H20 is the strongest AI acceleration chip among the three special-supply versions of China AI acceleration chips that meet the requirements of US export controls after the previous A100/A800 and H100/H800 were banned from exporting to China.

Although it is a "castrated" version based on the H100, it can provide up to 296 INT8 TOPS/FP8 TFLOPS computing power, it also has 96 GB of HBM3 memory and 4.0 TB/s memory bandwidth, making it compete with entry-level AI processors.B20 is rumored to be an iterative product designed by Nvidia to prevent the H20 from being banned, which may again reduce performance or streamline HBM capacity.

Previously, Dylan Patel, an analyst at SemiAnalysis, predicted that Nvidia will ship more than 1 million H20 chips to the Chinese market in 2024, which will bring Nvidia more than US$12 billion in revenue.

If the news from Ruisui Securities is true, Nvidia's AI chip business in China will undoubtedly be significantly affected again.In addition to Nvidia, Intel and AMD's AI chip and GPU businesses in China may also be affected.In addition, Broadcom's related AI chip design service business in China may also be affected.

Ruisui Securities expects the final restriction rules to be announced in a few weeks.The appointments and policies have not been confirmed yet.

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